New report suggests the shortage is caused by an aging population, increased rates of chronic disease among young people, and a sizable number of physicians reaching retirement age
by Intelliworx
The healthcare search firm AMN is out with a new report that examines healthcare staffing projections through 2030. It takes a broad look at the provider shortage by analyzing a range of data sources.
Among these are their own data sets along with those published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Centers for Disease Control, S&P Global, and the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), among others.
AMN takes a broad look at the talent trends affecting healthcare, including those surrounding allied healthcare professionals. It also provides a sound briefing on the shortage of providers, particularly in rural areas, which is our focus as a company.
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How serious is the shortage?
Citing data from the AAMC, the report notes “a shortage of up to 86,000 physicians is projected by 2036.” It’s not just providers, the “Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) is projecting a shortage of 108,960 RNs by 2038.”
As a result, some 7,700 geographies in the U.S. have been designated as Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs). This impacts 76 million people, which works out to about one in five Americans. AMN says in the report that it would take “13,254 additional primary care providers” to remove these designations.
AMN forecasts that “demand for allied health professionals, including radiologic technologists and physical therapists, and for advanced practice providers (APPs), show signs of rapid growth through the end of the decade.”
What is causing the shortage?
The shortage is caused by three key factors, according to this report, that impact both the supply of providers and the demand for their services. As AMN puts it, the shortage is “driven by an aging population, increasing chronic disease prevalence, and physician retirements.”
The first key factor is that the U.S. population is getting older, and an aging population tends to need healthcare services more frequently. “By 2030, all Baby Boomers will have reached the age of 65,” according to the report. Consequently, “older adults will comprise approximately 20% of the United States population,” according to S&P Global.
Americans are living longer, too. The “average life expectancy in 2025” for those age 65 is just shy of 20 more years. This means this large demographic will need healthcare services well into their mid-80s.
The second key factor is a rise in chronic diseases. The report estimates that “76% of adults report at least one chronic condition.” In fact, more than “130 million U.S. adults are living with two or more chronic conditions in 2025.”
Alarmingly, it’s not just the aging population contracting chronic illness. The report notes 60% of young adults, defined as those ages 18-34, also reported having one chronic disease in 2025. That’s up more than 52% since 2013.
These two factors have added demand to the healthcare system, while at the same time, the supply of physicians is approaching retirement, which is the third key factor. “Over 30% of active physicians are 60 years or older, with 20% aged 65 or older, highlighting the urgency to address the aging workforce.”
Why is the shortage hitting rural healthcare harder?
AMN says there’s “a long-standing maldistribution of physicians” that disproportionately affects rural healthcare and “inner-city areas.” In fact, “over the five-year period, the average fill rate in urban settings was substantially higher than in rural settings.”
What’s more, that “gap has widened considerably.” In 2025, “the urban fill rate was more than 6% higher than the rural rate.” At the same time, fill rates in rural areas have continued to decline. Data the search firm analyzed from its own engagements revealed that just “2% of new physicians” expressed “a desire to work in HPSAs.”
Separate from this AMN report, we have observed that physicians tend to stay where they are trained, and the teaching hospitals tend to be located in urban areas. In addition, many independent practices, a traditional staple in rural locations, have closed or been acquired by corporate hospital systems.
However, there are reasons for optimism. Recruiters specializing in healthcare have noted physician hiring incentives are moving beyond compensation, as candidates increasingly weigh family needs, spousal employment, and work-life balance.
What is being done about it?
There is no quick solution to the shortage. It takes four years for a new college graduate to complete medical school and another 3-7 years, depending on specialization, to complete residency. Aside from filling the pipeline of aspiring doctors, AMN points to two strategies healthcare organizations are employing to overcome the shortage: APPs and AI.
Advanced practice providers
Many healthcare organizations are turning to advanced practice providers (APPs), including nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs), to meet demand. AMN says these healthcare workers “have become critical substitutes for primary care, especially in underserved areas.”
Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs) are similar in this respect, as the shortage impacts specialist physicians such as anesthesiologists. “Advanced practice nurses (APNs), including NPs, CRNAs, and nurse midwives, are among the fastest-growing roles in healthcare, with a projected growth rate of 12.4%,” according to the report.
AMN expects NP roles to grow by 40% through 2034. Indeed, APPs saw the biggest jump in compensation in 2025, as more organizations aim to employ them to fill coverage gaps.
The challenge for employers is that not all states permit APPs to practice without physician oversight. Other studies have found the geographies most successful in attracting APPs have less restrictive rules governing their ability to practice medicine.
AI
Earlier this year, The Wall Street Journal reported healthcare is adopting AI at a faster rate than any other industry. AMN notes, “AI usage for physicians is 81%, more than double what it was in 2023.” Further, three-quarters of physicians polled say AI helps them deliver better patient outcomes.
Many of these AI solutions are focused on eliminating administrative work, which AMN says takes up anywhere from 35-50% of a clinician’s time. Ambient listening, to supplement patient notes, is an example that’s drawing rave reviews among rural facilities.
The report says, “efficiency improvements through task automation could result in nurses reclaiming between 13% and 21% of their working hours, equating to 240 to 400 hours per nurse each year.”
In its report, AMN points out AI is also having a positive impact on healthcare recruiting tools, such as applicant tracking systems (ATS). AI helps “expedite candidate screening and reduce time-to-hire, and use predictive analytics to monitor workload and employee engagement metrics.”
This dovetails with our own perception of the market, as a provider of a rural healthcare recruiting platform. We integrated credentialing data into our platform and later generative AI, before rebranding the product as Workready.
What can rural healthcare do to address the shortage?
We’ve published several pieces on this topic that address the problem from different angles and have been well received. Here are some examples:
- Creative financial incentives rural healthcare can use to attract providers
- How long on average does it take to credential a provider in 2026?
- 5 healthcare credentialing challenges this recruiting platform solves for rural facilities
- Qualified mid-funnel applicants lost in the healthcare HR recruiting pipeline
- Finding providers: 9 healthcare recruiting statistics that sum up 2025
- Search trends: Which healthcare employers are searching for providers?
- 7 actionable steps rural healthcare can take to attract providers besides compensation
- Four strategies for recruiting healthcare providers to rural communities (3RNET)
- 10 ways HWM helps rural healthcare recruiting shorten time-to-fill
- A one-page marketing plan for rural healthcare to attract providers
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Get the full report
The full report runs 24 pages long and covers much more than we’ve articulated here. It’s freely available for download without registration: Healthcare Staffing Projections Through 2030.
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